The global, country-wise potential of green hydrogen in renewable-dominated electricity systems
Abstract
The transition to clean fuels is essential for climate mitigation, with green hydrogen playing a key role. This study quantifies global, country-level export potentials under renewable electricity share requirements (as in the EU Delegated Act), considering ramp-up rates and domestic demand. The derived results for highly renewable countries are validated by comparing export quantities using the sector-coupled energy model PyPSA-Earth. These results are made accessible via a public dashboard. Findings show that the renewable share requirement significantly impacts hydrogen and Power-to-X export eligibility. A 90% minimum share allows 24 TWh of exports in 2025, mainly from South America and Europe, while lowering the threshold to 70% increases this 7.5-fold to 181 TWh. However, concerns about the emission intensity of lower thresholds persist. Export volumes rise further in the medium term (2030–2035), when renewable expansion outpaces demand growth. Results underscore the role of regulatory design in unlocking near-term hydrogen exports and supporting long-term decarbonization goals.
